Ryanair’s boss says European fares could rise up to 20% next year

If you fly around Europe on a budget, Ryanair has a warning for you.

Its chief executive, Michael O’Leary, told CNBC on Monday that European airfares could rise by 10%, “maybe even 20%,” next year. That is his forecast, not a price list. But it comes from the man who runs Europe’s biggest airline by passengers, on the day it showed how much fuel is costing it.

The numbers

Ryanair’s results for April to September, published on Monday, showed profit after tax of €2.15 billion. That is down 15% from €2.54 billion a year earlier.

It was not for lack of customers. The airline carried 125.8 million passengers in the six months, up 6%. Revenue rose 3% to €10.08 billion.

The problem was cost. Operating costs climbed 10% to €7.69 billion. Ryanair had hedged most of its fuel at good prices, but the 20% it had left unhedged roughly doubled in price to about $130 a barrel, according to the company. At the same time, average fares fell 4% to €55.70.

Ryanair H1 FY27 Results = €2.15BN profit after tax (-15% vs H1 FY26) as unhedged 20% jet-fuel prices doubled to c.$130bbl.

✈️ Traffic up 6% to 125.8m
✈️ Average fare down 4%
✈️ 126 new Summer 2027 routes & 1 new base (Rimini)

- Ryanair (@Ryanair) November 2, 2026

Why fares could climb

The cheap fuel deals that protected Ryanair this year are running out. The airline says 80% of its fuel for the current financial year, which ends in March 2027, is hedged at about $67 a barrel. For the following year it has covered only 25%, at about $95. O’Leary’s view is that the whole European market will have to charge more.

Ryanair is also tightening up. Sharecast reports that it is starting a company-wide cost review that could include temporary pay freezes, lower crewing ratios, and more use of AI.

What it means for travellers

Nothing changes today. Ryanair has started selling next summer’s flights, and its prices move week to week with demand. What O’Leary is signalling is a direction.

So the advice is the old advice, with a bit more reason behind it. Know your dates for spring or summer 2027? It may pay to book earlier than you usually would. If you can fly on a Tuesday or outside school holidays, you will still find the lowest prices.

The bigger picture

None of this means Ryanair is struggling. Most airlines would take a €2.15 billion half-year and smile, and Ryanair flew 6% more people than a year earlier.

Still, the results show where the low-fare model strains: when fuel jumps, there is little room left in a €55.70 ticket. Ryanair plans to squeeze its own costs and let fares rise. Ryanair says its hedges give it a cost advantage over other EU airlines, which is part of why O’Leary expects prices to rise across Europe.

Editorial only, not financial advice.

Top photo: Hugo LUC via Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0.